Forecasters predict construction will just avoid an output decline this year if a soft Brexit is finally delivered.
But economists for Experian warn that their forecast of sluggish growth would have to be ripped up if the UK crashes out of the European Union with no deal.
The latest forecast for the next three years predicts construction will see a weak 0.4% rise in workloads this year followed by a return to stable but below trend growth of between 2.5%-3% in 2020 and 2021.
Forecasters now presume a “soft Brexit” will be the eventual outcome, with the UK gaining similar access to the EU single market as it does currently.
“We fully anticipate that such a deal could take longer to conclude than the initial transition period, and we do not expect a Brexit deal related bounce back in output growth to materialise until 2021,” says the report
It also assumes the planned Wylfa nuclear power station is not cancelled and the road building programme does not slip, as some in the industry fear.
Of the three key construction sectors housing and infrastructure are expected to experience good growth while there is weakness in the non-residential building sectors, like offices, retail and education.
It will probably not be until towards the mid-2020s that this profile unwinds.
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Balfour Beatty chief executive Leo Quinn is reported to have taken part in a conference call with ministers last night after the Government’s Brexit deal defeat,
Sky News said Quinn and bosses from Tesco and Amazon voiced their concerns to a trio of ministers including Chancellor Philip Hammond.
Quin is reported to have asked: “I would like to know when we might get back to a normal functioning government.
“Decisions are being delayed on HS2, new nuclear, Heathrow expansion.
“The enemy of business is delay and procrastination, and the construction industry will face large-scale restructuring where it cannot carry the resources it will need over the next 25 years, and capability will have to be let go.
“Once resources are lost to industry it is very difficult to get them to come back; the next six months are critical.”
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